Academy: Guts feelings or Facts?


Often the human input in the forecast process is not based on facts but on pure gut feelings. In fact our finding shows 50-75% of all adjustments to the quantitative forecast are in the wrong direction. The wrong adjustment hurt the supply chain and the financial performance. The finding is supported by research[1].

In this context it is important to measure the adjustments and extract the learnings. sophub measures the adjustments and by alerts, dashboards and meetings change the behaviour of people to be fact oriented.

In fact sophub automatically adjust the input until behaviour is changed.

Traditional forecast software do not have this feature and companies hereby lose 10%-25% improvements.

You typically see a forecast process to be based on a touch-everything approach. At sophub we turn it around and say hands-off the trivial many and fact based input on the vital few.

It means sophub analyze the port folio and find items where people normally have provided good input on the high volume items. sophub encourage people to continue add input on the vital few, and alert them when non-value adjustments.

The trivial many/vital few concept not only saves time for people but also improve the final forecast significantly.


[1] Fildes, Robert (2009). Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning. International Journal of Forecasting, 25-1, 3-23